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< prev - next > Environment and adaptation to climate change mainstreeming climate change adaptation in agricultural extranison (Printable PDF)
MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION
SLIDE 7 - COMMUNICATING PROBABILITIES (AVOIDING POSSIBLE
MISUNDERSTANDINGS)
The answer to the above is that the chance / probability of
low rainfall in the 3rd year is still 1 in 3
It is like rolling a dice or tossing a coin. What you have just
rolled or tossed does not affect the chance next time you do
it!
Any questions, feedback and clarification?
It is important to make sure that everyone is clear about what chance /
probability is. Later participants will be talking with farmers about this. Ask
participants to start thinking and discussing in their spare time how they would
explain chance / probability to smallholder farmers
We can now look at how this may be useful to farmers:
SLIDE 8 - WORKING OUT PROBABILITIES FOR KEY EVENTS
What events might farmers be interested in knowing?
In the next slide are some events
We will ask farmers to select and add to this too.....
SLIDE 9 - EVENTS
Total rainfall
Number of rain days
Temperature
Start of season
Risk of replanting
Dry spells
Longest dry spell
Annual extremes
Length of growing season
A Training Manual on Use of Climate Information and Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment for
Agricultural Extension Staff in Zimbabwe
Page 54